Data sourced from Dakota Private Markets, the private fund performance platform powered by Dakota. Learn More | Request Access
The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points on September 16, 2026, to 3.75% to 4.00%, then held there on October 28. It was the first hike since July 2023. The last cycle was far steeper: 11 hikes between March 2022 and July 2023 took the range from 0.00% to 0.25% up to 5.25% to 5.50%.
Funds that launched into that cycle give the clearest read on what worked. Among 2022 and 2023 vintages tracked by Dakota Private Markets, real assets posted a 13.52% median net IRR, led by natural resources at 18.00%. Private credit returned the most cash, with a 0.31x median DPI against 0.05x for private equity. Private real estate trailed every strategy at 6.70%.
Below are the peer groups by strategy and sub-strategy, what drove the gaps, and what the numbers mean for fund managers raising capital as rates move up again.
How Each Strategy Performed Through the Hiking Cycle
Real assets and venture capital led the 2022 and 2023 vintages on median net IRR, while private real estate trailed the leaders by nearly 7 percentage points.
|
Strategy (2022-2023 vintages)
|
Funds
|
Median Net IRR
|
Median TVPI
|
Median DPI
|
|
Venture Capital
|
19
|
14.00%
|
1.23x
|
Not reported
|
|
Real Assets
|
23
|
13.52%
|
1.23x
|
0.14x
|
|
Private Equity
|
112
|
12.25%
|
1.20x
|
0.05x
|
|
Private Credit
|
52
|
11.12%
|
1.19x
|
0.31x
|
|
Private Real Estate
|
51
|
6.70%
|
1.10x
|
0.08x
|
Source: Dakota Private Markets performance peer groups, as of June 30, 2026.
IRR and cash tell different stories. Private credit ranks fourth on median net IRR but first on distributions, returning roughly six times as much paid-in capital as private equity from the same vintages. Venture's lead rests on the 13 of its 19 funds that report an IRR, the thinnest sample in the table.
|
Strategy
|
Funds (2019-2021)
|
Median Net IRR, 2019-2021 Vintages
|
Median Net IRR, 2022-2023 Vintages
|
Change
|
|
Venture Capital
|
19
|
8.10%
|
14.00%
|
+5.90 pts
|
|
Real Assets
|
26
|
10.90%
|
13.52%
|
+2.62 pts
|
|
Private Real Estate
|
68
|
5.00%
|
6.70%
|
+1.70 pts
|
|
Private Credit
|
84
|
9.82%
|
11.12%
|
+1.30 pts
|
|
Private Equity
|
162
|
10.98%
|
12.25%
|
+1.27 pts
|
Source: Dakota Private Markets performance peer groups, as of June 30, 2026.
Every strategy shows a higher median IRR for the newer vintages, which says more about fund age than about rates. Younger funds report higher IRRs over short holding periods, and their TVPIs are lower across the board: 1.20x for 2022 and 2023 private equity versus 1.47x for 2019 to 2021. The useful comparison is across strategies within the same vintage, not across vintages.
Which Strategies Came Out Ahead
1. Real Assets: Natural Resources Led (18.00% Median Net IRR)
Real assets posted a 13.52% median net IRR across 23 funds from the 2022 and 2023 vintages. The sub-strategy split shows where that lead came from.
|
Sub-Strategy (2022-2023 vintages)
|
Funds
|
Median Net IRR
|
Median TVPI
|
|
Real Assets: Natural Resources
|
8
|
18.00%
|
1.35x
|
|
Real Assets: Infrastructure
|
12
|
12.00%
|
1.15x
|
Source: Dakota Private Markets performance peer groups, as of June 30, 2026.
Natural resources posted the highest median TVPI of any strategy or sub-strategy in the rising-rate vintages, at 1.35x. The sample is small: 5 of its 8 funds report an IRR. Infrastructure, the larger segment, landed at 12.00%, in line with private equity. Energy funds posted an 18.42% median, but only 3 funds report, too few to benchmark.
Why it held up:
- Assets with revenue tied to commodity prices and inflation can raise income as rates rise, offsetting higher financing costs.
- Funds launched in 2022 and 2023 deployed capital after valuations reset, rather than at 2021 prices.
For natural resources and infrastructure managers, these vintages are a recent, rate-tested track record to put in front of allocators weighing inflation protection.
2. Private Credit: The Cash Came Back First (0.31x Median DPI)
Private credit ranked fourth on median net IRR at 11.12% across 52 funds, but its 0.31x median DPI is the highest of any strategy in the 2022 and 2023 vintages. Private equity funds from the same years have returned a median 0.05x.
|
Sub-Strategy (2022-2023 vintages)
|
Funds
|
Median Net IRR
|
Median TVPI
|
|
Private Credit: Diversified
|
11
|
12.10%
|
1.25x
|
|
Private Credit: Special Situations
|
21
|
12.04%
|
1.22x
|
|
Private Credit: Corporate Lending
|
18
|
10.80%
|
1.16x
|
Source: Dakota Private Markets performance peer groups, as of June 30, 2026.
The three sub-strategies finished within 1.3 percentage points of each other. Special situations did not break away from the pack, which points to the structure of the asset class, not one strategy, driving results.
Why it held up:
- Floating-rate loans reset with base rates, so higher rates flow straight through to interest income.
- Current-pay coupons return cash from the first year, while equity strategies wait on exits.
Credit managers raising now can lead with distributions: in a rising-rate period, realized cash is the clearest proof of performance. To learn more about this dynamic go to Dakota Private Markets.
3. Venture Capital: Highest Median, Thinnest Data (14.00% Median Net IRR)
Venture capital's 14.00% median net IRR is the highest of any asset class in the rising-rate vintages. Only 13 of 19 funds report an IRR, and results range from -7.48% to 53.63%.
The 1.23x median TVPI sits in line with real assets and private equity, which suggests the IRR lead reflects timing more than value created so far. Venture managers citing these vintages are better served leading with TVPI, where the data is fuller.
4. Private Equity: Solid IRRs, Little Cash Back (12.25% Median Net IRR)
Private equity has the deepest data in the set: 112 funds from 2022 and 2023 vintages, with a 12.25% median net IRR and a 1.20x median TVPI. Distributions are thin at a 0.05x median DPI.
The liquidity gap extends to older funds. Private equity funds from 2019 to 2021 vintages, now five to seven years old, have returned a median 0.44x. Realized exits from 2022 and 2023 vintages are a differentiator for the managers who have them.
5. Private Real Estate: The Clear Laggard (6.70% Median Net IRR)
Private real estate posted the lowest median net IRR in both cohorts: 6.70% for 2022 and 2023 vintages and 5.00% for 2019 to 2021. Its 1.10x median TVPI is also the lowest of the five strategies, and the bottom-quartile cutoff for the rising-rate vintages sits at 1.97%.
Real estate's reliance on debt financing leaves it the most directly exposed to borrowing costs, and the benchmarks reflect it. Managers with top-quartile results, above 13.04% for these vintages, can show they outperformed in the toughest conditions for the asset class.
How to Read These Numbers
These peer groups measure funds that deployed through the 2022 and 2023 hikes, not the September 2026 move. Four points shape how far the data can be pushed:
- Timing: All figures are as of June 30, 2026, before the September hike. Its effect will show up in later quarters.
- Fund age: 2022 and 2023 funds are three to four years old. Early IRRs can run high over short holding periods, and TVPI and DPI will move as these funds mature.
- Medians: Every figure is a median, not an average, so a handful of outliers does not move the result.
- Sample sizes: Counts range from 8 funds (natural resources) to 112 (private equity), and not every fund reports every metric. Small samples are flagged where they appear.
What This Means for Fund Managers Raising Capital Now
The 2022 and 2023 vintages are the most recent record of how each strategy performed when rates climbed. With rates rising again, that record is the benchmark a fund will be measured against.
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Benchmark against your vintage and strategy, not the asset class average. Top-quartile cutoffs for 2022 and 2023 vintages vary widely: 18.53% median net IRR for private equity versus 13.04% for private real estate.
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Lead with the metric your strategy wins on. For private credit, that is DPI. For natural resources, TVPI. For private equity, IRR backed by realized exits.
-
Show sub-strategy context. Real assets' lead comes largely from natural resources, while infrastructure sits near the private equity median. Positioning a fund within its sub-strategy is more precise than citing the asset class.
-
Pair IRR with TVPI. Young-fund IRRs invite questions. Showing both answers the obvious follow-up before it is asked.
View Peer Groups For Your Fund in Dakota Private Markets
Dakota Private Markets tracks more than 14,800 performance peer groups across private equity, private credit, real assets, real estate and venture capital.
Filter by:
- Asset class and sub-strategy, such as Private Credit: Special Situations or Real Assets: Natural Resources
- Vintage year, including the 2022 and 2023 rising-rate cohorts
- Reporting quarter, from the latest marks back through prior periods
- Quartile rank on net IRR, TVPI or DPI
See where your fund stands against rising-rate peers before your next allocator meeting.
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