Private real estate is moving through a selective recovery rather than a broad-based rebound. The performance record still reflects higher financing costs, weaker valuation support and limited exits, with the 2021-2022 vintages showing the clearest effects of the market reset. Opportunistic strategies have generally held up better than value-add strategies in the most recent comparable cohorts, but outcomes remain highly dispersed within property types. The gap between reported value and cash returned has made liquidity—and the ability to convert current marks into realizations—the central question for LPs.
Recent-vintage performance remains uneven: The 2021 and 2022 median net IRRs were 5.7% and 4.3%, respectively, versus 6.5%-8.8% for the 2015-2018 vintages. The 2023 vintage is showing a 7.6% median, while the 2024 results remain very early.
Liquidity is the defining constraint: Median DPI is 0.24x or lower for every vintage from 2019 onward. For the 2021 cohort, the 1.10x median TVPI against 0.22x DPI means most reported value remains unrealized rather than returned to LPs.
Opportunistic strategies have held up better through the reset: Opportunistic funds generated median net IRRs of 6.0% and 8.4% in the 2022 and 2023 vintages, respectively, compared with 2.5% and 3.1% for value-add funds. The pattern supports an advantage for flexible mandates and newer entry bases.
Property type alone has not determined outcomes: Industrial, logistics, housing and digital-infrastructure funds appear at both ends of the recent performance range. Manager selection, entry basis, capital structure and asset-level execution remain more explanatory than sector labels alone.
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